Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 70.3
- SOG
- 212.0
- G
- 31.3
- A
- 39.0
- PPP
- 23.6
- HIT
- 56.7
- BLK
- 62.0
- PIM
- 23.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.86
- G
- 0.38
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 2.59
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.69
- BLK
- 0.76
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 28 | 38 | 66 | 0.80 | 211 | 20:43 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 35 | 34 | 69 | 0.92 | 187 | 20:23 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 0.94 | 182 | 19:29 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 31 | 49 | 80 | 0.99 | 256 | 19:17 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 21 | 39 | 60 | 0.86 | 153 | 19:20 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.80 | 16 | 24:12 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.58 | 33 | 19:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23:44 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:47 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:08 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:38 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:25 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 33.1 | 28 | minus 5.1 goals above expected | 72 | 300 |
| 2024-25 | 30.2 | 35 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 74 | 268 |
| 2023-24 | 26.4 | 27 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 65 | 259 |
| 2022-23 | 38.4 | 31 | minus 7.4 goals above expected | 80 | 343 |
| 2021-22 | 20.8 | 21 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 67 | 214 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 25 assists, 42 points | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 17 assists, 38 points | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 29 assists, 49 points | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 36 assists, 57 points | 7 goals, 12 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 29 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
300 attempts · 28 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.