Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 324 game sample- PTS
- 99.0
- SOG
- 314.2
- G
- 36.8
- A
- 62.1
- PPP
- 33.0
- HIT
- 9.2
- BLK
- 39.0
- PIM
- 15.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 324 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 324 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 324 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.21
- G
- 0.45
- A
- 0.76
- SOG
- 3.85
- PPP
- 0.41
- HIT
- 0.10
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.19
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 61 | 27 | 50 | 77 | 1.26 | 228 | 21:19 |
| 2024-25 | 62 | 27 | 43 | 70 | 1.13 | 229 | 20:54 |
| 2023-24 | 62 | 27 | 47 | 74 | 1.19 | 274 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 43 | 56 | 99 | 1.27 | 336 | 19:58 |
| 2021-22 | 49 | 26 | 30 | 56 | 1.14 | 165 | 19:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.92 | 45 | 19:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:32 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:44 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21:41 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 26:26 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:25 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28.9 | 27 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 60 | 310 |
| 2024-25 | 25.4 | 27 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 62 | 321 |
| 2023-24 | 26.0 | 27 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 62 | 361 |
| 2022-23 | 41.6 | 43 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 78 | 422 |
| 2021-22 | 20.8 | 26 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 49 | 223 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 30 assists, 52 points | 4 goals, 19 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 21 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 21 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 34 goals, 34 assists, 68 points | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 22 assists, 42 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
310 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.