Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 382 game sample- PTS
- 75.9
- SOG
- 255.3
- G
- 41.6
- A
- 34.2
- PPP
- 26.2
- HIT
- 61.5
- BLK
- 22.4
- PIM
- 12.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 382 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 382 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 382 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.93
- G
- 0.51
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 3.12
- PPP
- 0.32
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.27
- PIM
- 0.15
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 51 | 37 | 88 | 1.09 | 258 | 18:11 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 37 | 33 | 70 | 0.85 | 240 | 18:05 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 28 | 37 | 65 | 0.79 | 314 | 19:25 |
| 2022-23 | 46 | 26 | 10 | 36 | 0.78 | 158 | 18:03 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 23 | 20 | 43 | 0.64 | 188 | 16:41 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0.68 | 43 | 18:23 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.80 | 24 | 19:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:33 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21:16 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38.9 | 51 | plus 12.1 goals above expected | 81 | 386 |
| 2024-25 | 31.4 | 37 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 80 | 352 |
| 2023-24 | 32.8 | 28 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 82 | 436 |
| 2022-23 | 17.4 | 26 | plus 8.6 goals above expected | 46 | 228 |
| 2021-22 | 20.8 | 23 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 67 | 259 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 40 goals, 19 assists, 59 points | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 26 assists, 53 points | 10 goals, 7 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 25 assists, 44 points | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 7 assists, 26 points | 7 goals, 3 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 12 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
386 attempts · 51 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.