Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 217 game sample- PTS
- 62.0
- SOG
- 163.5
- G
- 30.1
- A
- 31.9
- PPP
- 16.8
- HIT
- 82.2
- BLK
- 36.2
- PIM
- 45.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 217 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 217 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 217 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.76
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 2.00
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 1.00
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54 | 24 | 19 | 43 | 0.80 | 102 | 17:20 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 25 | 40 | 65 | 0.87 | 158 | 17:52 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 0.54 | 151 | 15:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 17 | 22:21 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:19 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27:37 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27:58 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21:39 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13:51 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23:11 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.1 | 24 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 51 | 157 |
| 2024-25 | 19.2 | 25 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 71 | 225 |
| 2023-24 | 17.6 | 20 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 75 | 217 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 27 assists, 45 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
157 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.