Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 82.8
- SOG
- 272.7
- G
- 38.4
- A
- 44.3
- PPP
- 27.0
- HIT
- 65.1
- BLK
- 58.3
- PIM
- 39.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.01
- G
- 0.47
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 3.34
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 0.79
- BLK
- 0.71
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 42 | 43 | 85 | 1.12 | 254 | 20:34 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 27 | 46 | 73 | 0.89 | 271 | 20:17 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 29 | 40 | 69 | 0.92 | 227 | 18:55 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 31 | 32 | 63 | 0.78 | 255 | 18:30 |
| 2021-22 | 47 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.83 | 113 | 15:23 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 1.18 | 48 | 23:35 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1.17 | 20 | 25:01 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.50 | 24 | 20:53 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 13 | 13:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:03 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:27 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:08 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29:52 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 34:44 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32.4 | 42 | plus 9.6 goals above expected | 75 | 396 |
| 2024-25 | 31.5 | 27 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 80 | 426 |
| 2023-24 | 27.4 | 29 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 74 | 350 |
| 2022-23 | 32.9 | 31 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 81 | 379 |
| 2021-22 | 10.2 | 15 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 45 | 147 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27 goals, 24 assists, 51 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 31 assists, 50 points | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 23 goals, 14 assists, 37 points | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
396 attempts · 42 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.