Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 427 game sample- PTS
- 74.0
- SOG
- 237.1
- G
- 35.9
- A
- 38.1
- PPP
- 17.5
- HIT
- 121.7
- BLK
- 38.6
- PIM
- 55.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 427 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 427 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 427 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.91
- G
- 0.44
- A
- 0.47
- SOG
- 2.90
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 1.49
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.67
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 36 | 37 | 73 | 0.90 | 226 | 19:19 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 35 | 38 | 73 | 0.90 | 237 | 19:10 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 28 | 47 | 75 | 0.97 | 246 | 18:56 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 41 | 26 | 67 | 0.82 | 250 | 18:46 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 35 | 19 | 54 | 0.69 | 247 | 18:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 5 | 19:19 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1.67 | 21 | 21:44 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.00 | 21 | 19:48 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.33 | 31 | 20:42 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.86 | 33 | 20:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:01 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18:42 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:22 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:55 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28.4 | 36 | plus 7.6 goals above expected | 79 | 344 |
| 2024-25 | 29.1 | 35 | plus 5.9 goals above expected | 81 | 367 |
| 2023-24 | 24.5 | 28 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 76 | 352 |
| 2022-23 | 30.3 | 41 | plus 10.7 goals above expected | 78 | 341 |
| 2021-22 | 30.7 | 35 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 78 | 330 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32 goals, 27 assists, 59 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 28 assists, 55 points | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 24 assists, 44 points | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 17 assists, 43 points | 12 goals, 9 assists, 21 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 26 goals, 10 assists, 36 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
344 attempts · 36 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.