Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 65.1
- SOG
- 257.1
- G
- 34.0
- A
- 31.2
- PPP
- 15.7
- HIT
- 74.8
- BLK
- 44.9
- PIM
- 35.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.80
- G
- 0.42
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 3.15
- PPP
- 0.19
- HIT
- 0.91
- BLK
- 0.55
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 31 | 26 | 57 | 0.84 | 226 | 20:46 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 0.70 | 243 | 20:10 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 0.84 | 248 | 19:41 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 38 | 32 | 70 | 0.89 | 229 | 20:39 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 31 | 21 | 52 | 0.74 | 194 | 19:31 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 20 | 22:07 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 8 | 19:44 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:43 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:09 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.1 | 31 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 68 | 315 |
| 2024-25 | 30.3 | 28 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 81 | 360 |
| 2023-24 | 26.1 | 33 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 81 | 339 |
| 2022-23 | 32.4 | 38 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 79 | 301 |
| 2021-22 | 25.5 | 31 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 68 | 261 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 17 assists, 40 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 23 goals, 25 assists, 48 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 22 goals, 26 assists, 48 points | 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 22 goals, 21 assists, 43 points | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 15 assists, 32 points | 13 goals, 6 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
315 attempts · 31 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.