Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 373 game sample- PTS
- 66.5
- SOG
- 210.8
- G
- 32.7
- A
- 33.8
- PPP
- 10.1
- HIT
- 91.1
- BLK
- 96.2
- PIM
- 52.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 373 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 373 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 373 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.81
- G
- 0.40
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 2.58
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.11
- BLK
- 1.17
- PIM
- 0.64
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 33 | 33 | 66 | 0.84 | 195 | 18:59 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 36 | 31 | 67 | 0.82 | 196 | 19:15 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 22 | 37 | 59 | 0.79 | 192 | 19:30 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 36 | 43 | 79 | 1.07 | 218 | 19:09 |
| 2021-22 | 50 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 0.76 | 139 | 18:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.54 | 46 | 20:33 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21:25 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:10 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16:59 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:06 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:19 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:16 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:36 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 23:54 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.3 | 33 | plus 8.7 goals above expected | 78 | 319 |
| 2024-25 | 27.5 | 36 | plus 8.5 goals above expected | 82 | 314 |
| 2023-24 | 23.2 | 22 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 72 | 287 |
| 2022-23 | 28.1 | 36 | plus 7.9 goals above expected | 72 | 306 |
| 2021-22 | 17.3 | 12 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 49 | 191 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24 goals, 29 assists, 53 points | 7 goals, 2 assists, 9 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 20 assists, 47 points | 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points | 6 goals, 3 assists, 9 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 28 assists, 47 points | 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 27 goals, 31 assists, 58 points | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
319 attempts · 33 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.