Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 412 game sample- PTS
- 87.0
- SOG
- 234.7
- G
- 38.6
- A
- 48.3
- PPP
- 29.1
- HIT
- 45.1
- BLK
- 43.0
- PIM
- 50.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 412 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 412 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 412 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.06
- G
- 0.47
- A
- 0.59
- SOG
- 2.87
- PPP
- 0.36
- HIT
- 0.55
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.62
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 38 | 50 | 88 | 1.09 | 220 | 20:15 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 80 | 1.00 | 217 | 19:59 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 30 | 47 | 77 | 1.15 | 238 | 20:01 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 36 | 37 | 73 | 0.94 | 244 | 20:07 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 40 | 44 | 84 | 1.11 | 264 | 20:06 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.14 | 21 | 22:05 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.20 | 16 | 22:44 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.82 | 28 | 19:58 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 1.43 | 39 | 22:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:55 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:40 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:57 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| Apr 9 | @ MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37.1 | 38 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 80 | 315 |
| 2024-25 | 33.3 | 41 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 78 | 298 |
| 2023-24 | 37.8 | 30 | minus 7.8 goals above expected | 67 | 338 |
| 2022-23 | 40.6 | 36 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 75 | 344 |
| 2021-22 | 38.1 | 40 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 75 | 348 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28 goals, 28 assists, 56 points | 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 24 goals, 28 assists, 52 points | 16 goals, 11 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 30 assists, 55 points | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 25 goals, 25 assists, 50 points | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 33 goals, 29 assists, 62 points | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
315 attempts · 38 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.