Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 90.5
- SOG
- 223.4
- G
- 34.5
- A
- 55.9
- PPP
- 27.1
- HIT
- 77.0
- BLK
- 39.9
- PIM
- 46.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.11
- G
- 0.42
- A
- 0.68
- SOG
- 2.73
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 0.94
- BLK
- 0.48
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 29 | 45 | 74 | 1.09 | 160 | 19:14 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 33 | 58 | 91 | 1.14 | 227 | 20:22 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 42 | 52 | 94 | 1.15 | 278 | 20:05 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 33 | 60 | 93 | 1.13 | 255 | 20:08 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 31 | 53 | 84 | 1.22 | 208 | 19:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | 19 | 20:57 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1.67 | 22 | 20:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:00 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19:36 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:56 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:43 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.2 | 29 | plus 7.8 goals above expected | 62 | 235 |
| 2024-25 | 29.1 | 33 | plus 3.9 goals above expected | 79 | 339 |
| 2023-24 | 38.0 | 42 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 82 | 397 |
| 2022-23 | 27.2 | 33 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 80 | 348 |
| 2021-22 | 25.9 | 31 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 68 | 272 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 32 assists, 51 points | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 43 assists, 64 points | 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 32 goals, 39 assists, 71 points | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 42 assists, 66 points | 9 goals, 18 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 31 assists, 54 points | 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
235 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.