Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 318 game sample- PTS
- 84.5
- SOG
- 173.6
- G
- 32.0
- A
- 52.5
- PPP
- 30.3
- HIT
- 64.3
- BLK
- 58.5
- PIM
- 20.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 318 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 318 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 318 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.03
- G
- 0.39
- A
- 0.64
- SOG
- 2.12
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 0.78
- BLK
- 0.71
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 28 | 45 | 73 | 1.22 | 130 | 19:13 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 19 | 48 | 67 | 1.02 | 131 | 19:15 |
| 2023-24 | 56 | 16 | 37 | 53 | 0.95 | 117 | 19:25 |
| 2022-23 | 43 | 17 | 21 | 38 | 0.88 | 113 | 19:23 |
| 2021-22 | 37 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 0.81 | 71 | 18:20 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 0.71 | 37 | 19:52 |
| 2024-25 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.80 | 21 | 20:25 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.43 | 10 | 18:23 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 1.09 | 49 | 18:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:49 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 21:47 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 27:03 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:42 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 |
| May 8 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| May 6 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.4 | 28 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 58 | 205 |
| 2024-25 | 19.9 | 19 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 63 | 191 |
| 2023-24 | 16.2 | 16 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 52 | 162 |
| 2022-23 | 16.4 | 16 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 42 | 151 |
| 2021-22 | 11.0 | 9 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 30 | 94 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 25 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
205 attempts · 28 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.