Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 437 game sample- PTS
- 81.4
- SOG
- 221.7
- G
- 37.1
- A
- 44.4
- PPP
- 11.6
- HIT
- 61.6
- BLK
- 49.4
- PIM
- 68.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 437 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 437 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 437 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.00
- G
- 0.45
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 2.71
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.83
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 36 | 38 | 74 | 1.04 | 214 | 19:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 35 | 55 | 90 | 1.10 | 228 | 20:44 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 26 | 49 | 75 | 0.91 | 184 | 19:16 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 0.79 | 178 | 18:39 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 25 | 19 | 44 | 0.57 | 125 | 16:22 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1.14 | 20 | 24:52 |
| 2024-25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 17:43 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.00 | 8 | 21:36 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | 15 | 21:01 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.26 | 41 | 14:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21:53 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 29:05 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 23:12 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 25:34 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:58 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 23:52 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:27 |
| Apr 15 | vs NYR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:46 |
| Mar 31 | vs MTL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38.1 | 36 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 70 | 328 |
| 2024-25 | 33.6 | 35 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 80 | 319 |
| 2023-24 | 28.1 | 25 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 79 | 259 |
| 2022-23 | 28.0 | 30 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 75 | 245 |
| 2021-22 | 16.8 | 25 | plus 8.2 goals above expected | 65 | 166 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31 goals, 31 assists, 62 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 32 goals, 40 assists, 72 points | 0 goals, 11 assists, 11 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points |
| 2023-24 | 23 goals, 42 assists, 65 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 22 goals, 26 assists, 48 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 15 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
328 attempts · 36 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.