Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 382 game sample- PTS
- 49.1
- SOG
- 222.8
- G
- 25.8
- A
- 23.4
- PPP
- 7.3
- HIT
- 160.6
- BLK
- 55.3
- PIM
- 23.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 382 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 382 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 382 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.32
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 2.72
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 1.96
- BLK
- 0.67
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 28 | 23 | 51 | 0.63 | 220 | 16:50 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 0.56 | 188 | 15:59 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 28 | 25 | 53 | 0.68 | 289 | 16:35 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 27 | 22 | 49 | 0.64 | 231 | 17:26 |
| 2021-22 | 63 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 0.33 | 126 | 13:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 9 | 17:14 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 14:17 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:37 |
| Apr 13 | vs CAR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 |
| Apr 9 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 |
| Apr 7 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.4 | 28 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 80 | 333 |
| 2024-25 | 17.4 | 20 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 75 | 295 |
| 2023-24 | 25.2 | 28 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 76 | 402 |
| 2022-23 | 23.5 | 27 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 76 | 315 |
| 2021-22 | 13.9 | 10 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 58 | 163 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 19 assists, 41 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 16 assists, 36 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 23 goals, 22 assists, 45 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 18 assists, 37 points | 8 goals, 4 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
333 attempts · 28 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.