Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 322 game sample- PTS
- 46.9
- SOG
- 226.3
- G
- 13.2
- A
- 33.7
- PPP
- 17.1
- HIT
- 92.8
- BLK
- 90.9
- PIM
- 50.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 322 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 322 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 322 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 2.77
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 1.13
- BLK
- 1.11
- PIM
- 0.62
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 0.51 | 203 | 21:32 |
| 2024-25 | 64 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 0.63 | 186 | 19:52 |
| 2023-24 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 0.80 | 61 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 22 | 52 | 74 | 0.90 | 275 | 21:46 |
| 2021-22 | 62 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 0.48 | 197 | 21:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 10 | 25:01 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | 23 | 20:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:59 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:55 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:51 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 22:54 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:38 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:23 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.3 | 12 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 76 | 299 |
| 2024-25 | 11.4 | 9 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 63 | 278 |
| 2023-24 | 2.8 | 5 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 19 | 88 |
| 2022-23 | 14.8 | 22 | plus 7.2 goals above expected | 79 | 378 |
| 2021-22 | 13.1 | 9 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 61 | 285 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 21 assists, 25 points | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 32 assists, 46 points | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
299 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.