Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 397 game sample- PTS
- 53.1
- SOG
- 275.7
- G
- 28.1
- A
- 25.0
- PPP
- 13.3
- HIT
- 146.7
- BLK
- 58.8
- PIM
- 41.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 397 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 397 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 397 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 3.37
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 1.79
- BLK
- 0.72
- PIM
- 0.50
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 0.57 | 269 | 18:31 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 26 | 27 | 53 | 0.66 | 239 | 17:52 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 28 | 24 | 52 | 0.75 | 207 | 17:36 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 40 | 26 | 66 | 0.85 | 327 | 19:23 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 35 | 41 | 76 | 0.99 | 326 | 19:10 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.80 | 18 | 21:49 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.36 | 37 | 16:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:00 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:22 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:08 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 35.2 | 24 | minus 11.2 goals above expected | 76 | 430 |
| 2024-25 | 30.1 | 26 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 79 | 387 |
| 2023-24 | 22.2 | 28 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 69 | 316 |
| 2022-23 | 36.8 | 40 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 78 | 465 |
| 2021-22 | 33.7 | 35 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 77 | 448 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 16 assists, 34 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 21 assists, 40 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 17 assists, 35 points | 10 goals, 7 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 23 goals, 20 assists, 43 points | 17 goals, 6 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 35 assists, 58 points | 12 goals, 6 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
430 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.