Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 307 game sample- PTS
- 82.5
- SOG
- 281.2
- G
- 22.0
- A
- 60.5
- PPP
- 22.1
- HIT
- 28.8
- BLK
- 118.3
- PIM
- 23.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 307 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 307 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 307 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.01
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.74
- SOG
- 3.44
- PPP
- 0.27
- HIT
- 0.35
- BLK
- 1.45
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 22 | 59 | 81 | 1.08 | 260 | 26:37 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 23 | 59 | 82 | 1.01 | 298 | 26:45 |
| 2023-24 | 70 | 11 | 46 | 57 | 0.81 | 202 | 24:27 |
| 2022-23 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.62 | 41 | 23:36 |
| 2021-22 | 68 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 0.71 | 216 | 25:40 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:59 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30:27 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25:42 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:46 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 33:26 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 27:27 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:12 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:29 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30:11 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.8 | 22 | plus 6.2 goals above expected | 75 | 386 |
| 2024-25 | 20.3 | 23 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 81 | 433 |
| 2023-24 | 12.2 | 11 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 70 | 285 |
| 2022-23 | 2.3 | 3 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 13 | 54 |
| 2021-22 | 15.4 | 11 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 67 | 313 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 40 assists, 58 points | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 37 assists, 54 points | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 36 assists, 45 points | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 26 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
386 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.