Thu, Sep 17, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Corey Perry

LAK·F

Played for TBL in the game shown

TBL@MTL

Latest captured market

Apr 9 · 7:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 447 game sample

PTS: 35.6
SOG: 119.0
G: 18.8

A: 16.9
PPP: 11.8
HIT: 49.6
BLK: 23.9
PIM: 76.0

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 447 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

What carries into 2026-27

a forecast, not a result

Most of this cold run probably won’t repeat

below expectedzero = average for the positionabove expected

● what happened○ what is projected

2025-26

−0.07

per 100 attempts, vs position

= −0.6 goals over 173

Carries forward

18%

of that rate

measured, 5 seasons

2026-27

−0.01

per 100 attempts, projected

≈ −0.0 goals at the same volume

How this is measured, and what it doesn’t say →

Among forwards · 973 ranked

Production

Points

Goals

Assists

Shots

PP Points

Style & role

Hits

Blocks

PIM

Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 447 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 447 games incl. playoffs

PTS: 0.43
G: 0.23
A: 0.21
SOG: 1.45
PPP: 0.14
HIT: 0.60
BLK: 0.29
PIM: 0.93

Season totals

regular season

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	72	17	20	37	0.51	113	13:40
2024-25	81	19	11	30	0.37	100	11:56
2023-24	54	12	10	22	0.41	82	13:23
2022-23	81	12	13	25	0.31	116	11:34
2021-22	82	19	21	40	0.49	153	13:31

Playoffs

postseason only

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	7	0	0	0	0.00	5	9:04
2024-25	22	10	4	14	0.64	41	15:16
2023-24	19	1	2	3	0.16	15	10:46
2022-23	6	2	3	5	0.83	12	11:05
2021-22	23	6	5	11	0.48	43	12:42

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Apr 9 lineG 1/10A 0/10PPP 0/10

Date	Opp	SOG	G	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI
May 3	vs MTLPO	0	0	1	0	0	8:58
May 1	@ MTLPO	0	0	2	0	0	9:43
Apr 29	vs MTLPO	1	0	0	0	0	6:55
Apr 26	@ MTLPO	2	0	1	0	0	8:50
Apr 24	@ MTLPO	0	0	0	0	0	9:32
Apr 21	vs MTLPO	1	0	1	1	4	10:49
Apr 19	vs MTLPO	1	0	1	2	0	8:42
Apr 15	vs NYR	4	1	0	1	2	16:12
Apr 13	vs DET	0	0	1	0	0	13:29
Apr 11	@ BOS	3	0	0	0	0	9:10

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season

Season	xG	G	GAx	GP	Att
2025-26	17.6	17	minus 0.6 goals above expected	63	173
2024-25	16.3	19	plus 2.7 goals above expected	70	153
2023-24	11.9	12	plus 0.1 goals above expected	53	120
2022-23	15.2	12	minus 3.2 goals above expected	70	165
2021-22	21.7	19	minus 2.7 goals above expected	73	206

How the 2026-27 projection is made

a forecast, not a result

Finishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.

Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.

This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season

Season	Even strength	Power play	Shorthanded
2025-26	12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points	5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points	0-0-0
2024-25	15 goals, 8 assists, 23 points	4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points	0-0-0
2023-24	9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points	3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points	0-0-0
2022-23	6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points	6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points	0-0-0
2021-22	13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points	6 goals, 2 assists, 8 points	0-0-0

Shot locations

173 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26

Missed the net (60)Shot on goal (96)Goal (17)

Markets · Apr 9

modeled projections

Anytime goal

Line

0.5

Proj

0.2

P(over)

17%

Assists

Line

0.5

Proj

0.2

P(over)

18%

PPP

Power-play points

Line

0.5

Proj

0.1

P(over)

SOG

Shots on goal

No line posted.

HITS

Hits

No line posted.

BLK

Blocked shots

No line posted.

PIM

Penalty minutes

No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.