Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 342 game sample- PTS
- 75.0
- SOG
- 194.0
- G
- 25.5
- A
- 49.5
- PPP
- 26.6
- HIT
- 38.3
- BLK
- 36.9
- PIM
- 74.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 342 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 342 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 342 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.92
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.61
- SOG
- 2.37
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 0.46
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.91
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 56 | 19 | 42 | 61 | 1.09 | 148 | 17:35 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 16 | 34 | 50 | 0.74 | 125 | 17:47 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 0.82 | 199 | 18:35 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 27 | 56 | 83 | 1.01 | 240 | 18:35 |
| 2021-22 | 41 | 20 | 22 | 42 | 1.02 | 129 | 18:20 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 8 | 17:56 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.86 | 22 | 20:39 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:25 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:06 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:20 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.7 | 19 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 53 | 198 |
| 2024-25 | 16.0 | 16 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 64 | 176 |
| 2023-24 | 24.1 | 27 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 77 | 280 |
| 2022-23 | 27.2 | 27 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 80 | 313 |
| 2021-22 | 14.6 | 20 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 38 | 158 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 24 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 28 assists, 49 points | 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 31 assists, 47 points | 11 goals, 25 assists, 36 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
198 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.