Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 420 game sample- PTS
- 58.4
- SOG
- 123.8
- G
- 18.9
- A
- 39.5
- PPP
- 18.5
- HIT
- 45.3
- BLK
- 73.7
- PIM
- 10.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 420 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 420 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 420 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.71
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 1.51
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 0.55
- BLK
- 0.90
- PIM
- 0.13
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 0.57 | 101 | 19:07 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 21 | 46 | 67 | 0.83 | 98 | 18:58 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 26 | 44 | 70 | 0.86 | 133 | 19:40 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 28 | 46 | 74 | 0.90 | 169 | 20:18 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 19 | 48 | 67 | 0.83 | 210 | 20:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 19:03 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1.50 | 8 | 21:29 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 9 | 20:01 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1.17 | 14 | 22:37 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 28 | 21:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:30 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:32 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:41 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:16 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.4 | 12 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 56 | 162 |
| 2024-25 | 13.9 | 21 | plus 7.1 goals above expected | 69 | 146 |
| 2023-24 | 15.6 | 26 | plus 10.4 goals above expected | 75 | 182 |
| 2022-23 | 21.8 | 28 | plus 6.2 goals above expected | 77 | 239 |
| 2021-22 | 22.2 | 19 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 79 | 280 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 28 assists, 44 points | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 32 assists, 53 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 32 assists, 45 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
162 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.