Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 385 game sample- PTS
- 39.9
- SOG
- 148.2
- G
- 7.8
- A
- 32.1
- PPP
- 11.6
- HIT
- 126.0
- BLK
- 112.0
- PIM
- 57.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 385 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 385 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 385 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 1.81
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 1.54
- BLK
- 1.37
- PIM
- 0.70
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 3 | 31 | 34 | 0.46 | 104 | 21:41 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 0.41 | 164 | 23:32 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 10 | 41 | 51 | 0.62 | 164 | 24:41 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 12 | 29 | 41 | 0.64 | 161 | 24:52 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 10 | 58 | 68 | 0.87 | 214 | 25:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 11 | 23:50 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 19 | 29:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 30:46 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22:08 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 20:43 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:22 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:15 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:06 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:37 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.3 | 3 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 67 | 160 |
| 2024-25 | 9.3 | 9 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 67 | 236 |
| 2023-24 | 7.4 | 10 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 80 | 239 |
| 2022-23 | 8.2 | 12 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 60 | 225 |
| 2021-22 | 11.4 | 10 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 75 | 272 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 22 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 35 assists, 45 points | 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 38 assists, 46 points | 2 goals, 20 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
160 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.