Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 422 game sample- PTS
- 52.9
- SOG
- 152.6
- G
- 16.4
- A
- 36.5
- PPP
- 15.9
- HIT
- 66.0
- BLK
- 31.6
- PIM
- 21.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 422 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 422 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 422 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.45
- SOG
- 1.86
- PPP
- 0.19
- HIT
- 0.80
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 14 | 35 | 49 | 0.60 | 138 | 16:18 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 15 | 35 | 50 | 0.62 | 138 | 18:13 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 21 | 43 | 64 | 0.78 | 183 | 20:05 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 35 | 44 | 79 | 0.96 | 214 | 18:48 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 21 | 44 | 65 | 0.87 | 205 | 19:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 20:22 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | 7 | 17:29 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.80 | 25 | 18:00 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:24 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:04 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:12 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.6 | 14 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 69 | 195 |
| 2024-25 | 14.3 | 15 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 73 | 189 |
| 2023-24 | 17.6 | 21 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 76 | 247 |
| 2022-23 | 22.5 | 35 | plus 12.5 goals above expected | 80 | 293 |
| 2021-22 | 19.0 | 21 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 72 | 268 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 23 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 26 assists, 42 points | 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 28 goals, 26 assists, 54 points | 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 26 assists, 42 points | 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
195 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.