Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 377 game sample- PTS
- 65.2
- SOG
- 194.9
- G
- 14.7
- A
- 50.5
- PPP
- 23.4
- HIT
- 28.2
- BLK
- 81.3
- PIM
- 30.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 377 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 377 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 377 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.80
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.62
- SOG
- 2.38
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.34
- BLK
- 0.99
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 15 | 51 | 66 | 0.88 | 176 | 23:36 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 11 | 42 | 53 | 0.65 | 191 | 23:14 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 11 | 45 | 56 | 0.68 | 213 | 24:16 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 25 | 76 | 101 | 1.23 | 209 | 25:37 |
| 2021-22 | 50 | 10 | 25 | 35 | 0.70 | 117 | 23:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 13 | 28:37 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36:22 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26:23 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26:47 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28:59 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 27:29 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:43 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:56 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:27 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:30 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.4 | 15 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 74 | 291 |
| 2024-25 | 9.2 | 11 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 81 | 295 |
| 2023-24 | 11.5 | 11 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 81 | 310 |
| 2022-23 | 12.2 | 25 | plus 12.8 goals above expected | 79 | 287 |
| 2021-22 | 7.7 | 10 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 49 | 170 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 4 goals, 22 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 29 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 30 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 54 assists, 74 points | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 10 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
291 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.