Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 375 game sample- PTS
- 54.2
- SOG
- 166.3
- G
- 23.4
- A
- 30.8
- PPP
- 14.4
- HIT
- 47.6
- BLK
- 40.7
- PIM
- 27.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 375 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 375 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 375 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 2.03
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 0.58
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 26 | 29 | 55 | 0.69 | 168 | 18:29 |
| 2024-25 | 42 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0.62 | 66 | 16:16 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 0.56 | 168 | 17:27 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 20 | 43 | 63 | 0.77 | 177 | 16:41 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 21 | 23 | 44 | 0.56 | 164 | 17:57 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.79 | 31 | 18:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:01 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:26 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:53 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.1 | 26 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 76 | 261 |
| 2024-25 | 9.8 | 9 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 38 | 102 |
| 2023-24 | 22.8 | 17 | minus 5.8 goals above expected | 76 | 243 |
| 2022-23 | 20.1 | 20 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 78 | 246 |
| 2021-22 | 20.9 | 21 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 76 | 239 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 17 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 21 assists, 32 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 31 assists, 48 points | 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 18 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
261 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.