Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 324 game sample- PTS
- 51.7
- SOG
- 197.4
- G
- 23.7
- A
- 28.0
- PPP
- 12.9
- HIT
- 71.3
- BLK
- 40.9
- PIM
- 28.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 324 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 324 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 324 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.63
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 2.42
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 0.87
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.72 | 71 | 18:53 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 24 | 24 | 48 | 0.59 | 169 | 18:31 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 0.66 | 218 | 17:13 |
| 2022-23 | 55 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 0.60 | 122 | 17:06 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 0.48 | 156 | 15:38 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 16 | 19:40 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 14 | 16:14 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 |
| Nov 26 | vs BOS | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 |
| Nov 23 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:10 |
| Nov 22 | vs STL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Nov 20 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| Nov 18 | @ DAL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 |
| Nov 16 | @ COL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 |
| Nov 14 | @ UTA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| Nov 13 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 |
| Nov 10 | @ NJD | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Nov 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.6 | 6 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 25 | 100 |
| 2024-25 | 23.1 | 24 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 79 | 278 |
| 2023-24 | 31.2 | 30 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 78 | 312 |
| 2022-23 | 16.4 | 16 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 52 | 184 |
| 2021-22 | 19.4 | 15 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 67 | 215 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 14 assists, 34 points | 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
100 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Nov 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.