Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 300 game sample- PTS
- 40.7
- SOG
- 209.0
- G
- 19.4
- A
- 21.3
- PPP
- 6.5
- HIT
- 191.5
- BLK
- 31.6
- PIM
- 114.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 300 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 300 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 300 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 2.56
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 2.34
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 1.40
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 0.44 | 171 | 16:25 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 0.57 | 220 | 16:47 |
| 2022-23 | 41 | 16 | 12 | 28 | 0.68 | 146 | 18:42 |
| 2021-22 | 43 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 0.91 | 152 | 19:27 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0.57 | 47 | 16:29 |
| 2023-24 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.40 | 44 | 14:57 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.42 | 38 | 19:44 |
| 2021-22 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 1.13 | 57 | 19:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Mar 28 | @ CGY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 |
| Mar 26 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:41 |
| Mar 24 | vs ANA | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 |
| Mar 21 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Mar 19 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 |
| Mar 17 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13:04 |
| Mar 14 | vs SEA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:31 |
| Mar 12 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:44 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.5 | 13 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 65 | 265 |
| 2023-24 | 27.9 | 24 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 76 | 320 |
| 2022-23 | 18.3 | 16 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 40 | 190 |
| 2021-22 | 20.7 | 22 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 42 | 206 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 15 assists, 36 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 15 assists, 32 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
265 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.