Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 407 game sample- PTS
- 45.7
- SOG
- 135.8
- G
- 19.0
- A
- 26.7
- PPP
- 9.6
- HIT
- 182.6
- BLK
- 46.8
- PIM
- 69.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 407 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 407 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 407 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 1.66
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 2.23
- BLK
- 0.57
- PIM
- 0.85
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 18 | 21 | 39 | 0.49 | 119 | 16:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 0.61 | 145 | 17:34 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 26 | 46 | 0.56 | 170 | 17:47 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 21 | 44 | 65 | 0.79 | 144 | 18:26 |
| 2021-22 | 62 | 24 | 34 | 58 | 0.94 | 111 | 17:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.43 | 10 | 17:59 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.67 | 16 | 18:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:38 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:11 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:09 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 19:22 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:04 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.4 | 18 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 68 | 185 |
| 2024-25 | 20.5 | 18 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 79 | 216 |
| 2023-24 | 23.9 | 20 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 78 | 259 |
| 2022-23 | 20.7 | 21 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 72 | 214 |
| 2021-22 | 14.0 | 24 | plus 10.0 goals above expected | 56 | 152 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 27 assists, 43 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 35 assists, 50 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 24 assists, 41 points | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
185 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.