Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 405 game sample- PTS
- 35.5
- SOG
- 118.6
- G
- 7.3
- A
- 28.2
- PPP
- 8.1
- HIT
- 104.8
- BLK
- 78.9
- PIM
- 66.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 405 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 405 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 405 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 1.45
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 1.28
- BLK
- 0.96
- PIM
- 0.82
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 0.50 | 108 | 20:36 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 4 | 25 | 29 | 0.38 | 118 | 21:04 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 0.40 | 123 | 18:23 |
| 2022-23 | 54 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 0.41 | 90 | 20:11 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 5 | 24 | 29 | 0.37 | 168 | 22:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 12 | 19:04 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.25 | 27 | 15:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:04 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:30 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:02 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15:52 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:03 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:32 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:25 |
| Mar 24 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:20 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.4 | 8 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 67 | 161 |
| 2024-25 | 5.4 | 4 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 65 | 187 |
| 2023-24 | 7.0 | 9 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 71 | 183 |
| 2022-23 | 3.3 | 2 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 48 | 127 |
| 2021-22 | 7.0 | 5 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 76 | 234 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 9 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 23 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 10 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
161 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.