Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 398 game sample- PTS
- 37.4
- SOG
- 133.6
- G
- 16.8
- A
- 20.6
- PPP
- 4.3
- HIT
- 51.2
- BLK
- 27.9
- PIM
- 15.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 398 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 398 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 398 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.63
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.62
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 16 | 10 | 26 | 0.38 | 95 | 13:41 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 0.51 | 129 | 15:26 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 0.53 | 152 | 16:08 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 26 | 30 | 56 | 0.72 | 180 | 16:58 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 16 | 22 | 38 | 0.68 | 150 | 17:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 10 | 12:29 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.36 | 17 | 15:36 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 0.64 | 51 | 16:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 |
| May 1 | @ UTAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Apr 29 | vs UTAPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 |
| Apr 27 | @ UTAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 |
| Apr 24 | @ UTAPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 |
| Apr 21 | vs UTAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 |
| Apr 19 | vs UTAPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:25 |
| Apr 15 | vs SEA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:10 |
| Apr 13 | vs WPG | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 |
| Apr 4 | @ EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.1 | 16 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 60 | 135 |
| 2024-25 | 15.4 | 13 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 71 | 176 |
| 2023-24 | 19.1 | 13 | minus 6.1 goals above expected | 70 | 214 |
| 2022-23 | 23.2 | 25 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 74 | 241 |
| 2021-22 | 19.1 | 16 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 54 | 199 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 10 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
135 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.