Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 399 game sample- PTS
- 19.4
- SOG
- 89.8
- G
- 9.3
- A
- 10.1
- PPP
- 0.4
- HIT
- 170.3
- BLK
- 63.1
- PIM
- 34.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 399 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 399 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 399 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.12
- SOG
- 1.09
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 2.08
- BLK
- 0.77
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 0.22 | 80 | 11:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 0.21 | 97 | 13:02 |
| 2023-24 | 70 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 0.33 | 82 | 13:56 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 0.26 | 111 | 14:32 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 0.22 | 91 | 13:45 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 15:56 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 7 | 14:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:29 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:28 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:04 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13:17 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:38 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.8 | 10 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 60 | 129 |
| 2024-25 | 10.7 | 7 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 70 | 159 |
| 2023-24 | 8.4 | 10 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 52 | 110 |
| 2022-23 | 12.2 | 6 | minus 6.2 goals above expected | 66 | 149 |
| 2021-22 | 11.0 | 10 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 60 | 128 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 5 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
129 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.