Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 35.5
- SOG
- 137.5
- G
- 14.4
- A
- 21.1
- PPP
- 8.6
- HIT
- 120.3
- BLK
- 49.2
- PIM
- 58.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.68
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 1.47
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.71
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 14 | 24 | 38 | 0.47 | 127 | 16:40 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 0.30 | 110 | 14:42 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 16 | 19 | 35 | 0.46 | 155 | 16:53 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 0.51 | 164 | 16:38 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 0.56 | 141 | 15:05 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 9 | 18:37 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.50 | 23 | 17:35 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 9 | 13:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:08 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 14:55 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:24 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:54 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:05 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Mar 26 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.3 | 14 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 73 | 210 |
| 2024-25 | 13.1 | 11 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 60 | 162 |
| 2023-24 | 19.1 | 16 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 74 | 222 |
| 2022-23 | 20.1 | 14 | minus 6.1 goals above expected | 75 | 236 |
| 2021-22 | 15.4 | 17 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 68 | 183 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 24 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
210 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.