Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 414 game sample- PTS
- 45.2
- SOG
- 206.3
- G
- 22.5
- A
- 22.7
- PPP
- 8.7
- HIT
- 113.1
- BLK
- 41.0
- PIM
- 46.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 414 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 414 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 414 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.55
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 2.52
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 1.38
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 0.51 | 199 | 15:38 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 29 | 25 | 54 | 0.66 | 233 | 17:04 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 20 | 17 | 37 | 0.46 | 185 | 15:34 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 28 | 22 | 50 | 0.61 | 214 | 17:13 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 28 | 18 | 46 | 0.61 | 159 | 16:38 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.80 | 15 | 16:14 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 16 | 17:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:06 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:29 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:46 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14:10 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:38 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32.0 | 19 | minus 13.0 goals above expected | 82 | 315 |
| 2024-25 | 31.8 | 29 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 80 | 338 |
| 2023-24 | 27.0 | 20 | minus 7.0 goals above expected | 76 | 281 |
| 2022-23 | 30.4 | 28 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 81 | 303 |
| 2021-22 | 25.3 | 28 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 69 | 228 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 20 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 24 goals, 21 assists, 45 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 0 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 14 assists, 35 points | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 19 goals, 14 assists, 33 points | 9 goals, 4 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
315 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.