Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 72.4
- SOG
- 177.3
- G
- 20.6
- A
- 51.8
- PPP
- 28.5
- HIT
- 36.0
- BLK
- 45.6
- PIM
- 27.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.89
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.63
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 0.43
- BLK
- 0.55
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 59 | 15 | 39 | 54 | 0.92 | 122 | 18:38 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 19 | 35 | 54 | 0.78 | 151 | 19:40 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 12 | 51 | 63 | 0.91 | 173 | 18:53 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 22 | 45 | 67 | 0.86 | 198 | 20:11 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 24 | 55 | 79 | 1.13 | 159 | 18:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1.13 | 15 | 18:22 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 8 | 18:40 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 15 | 21:30 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 9 | 19:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:57 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:54 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:04 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 18 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:41 |
| Apr 9 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 |
| Apr 7 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.4 | 15 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 59 | 195 |
| 2024-25 | 15.3 | 19 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 64 | 220 |
| 2023-24 | 15.0 | 12 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 67 | 246 |
| 2022-23 | 21.1 | 22 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 78 | 279 |
| 2021-22 | 14.6 | 24 | plus 9.4 goals above expected | 70 | 203 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 24 assists, 33 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points | 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 22 assists, 29 points | 5 goals, 29 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 34 assists, 51 points | 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
195 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.