Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 347 game sample- PTS
- 52.4
- SOG
- 166.7
- G
- 25.3
- A
- 27.1
- PPP
- 18.4
- HIT
- 97.3
- BLK
- 27.1
- PIM
- 47.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 347 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 347 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 347 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.64
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 2.04
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 1.19
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.58
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 24 | 21 | 45 | 0.73 | 128 | 15:37 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 21 | 32 | 53 | 0.73 | 143 | 15:59 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 0.46 | 150 | 13:49 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 27 | 21 | 48 | 0.62 | 197 | 15:40 |
| 2021-22 | 41 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 0.41 | 102 | 14:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 18 | 14:32 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 17 | 14:18 |
| 2021-22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 9 | 13:45 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12:14 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:15 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:25 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.3 | 24 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 54 | 192 |
| 2024-25 | 18.2 | 21 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 70 | 229 |
| 2023-24 | 16.8 | 14 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 66 | 223 |
| 2022-23 | 25.7 | 27 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 75 | 283 |
| 2021-22 | 10.6 | 8 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 37 | 127 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 10 goals, 6 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 22 assists, 32 points | 11 goals, 10 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 25 goals, 14 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
192 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.