Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 445 game sample- PTS
- 49.5
- SOG
- 134.6
- G
- 18.9
- A
- 30.6
- PPP
- 10.0
- HIT
- 118.1
- BLK
- 57.9
- PIM
- 22.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 445 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 445 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 445 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.64
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.44
- BLK
- 0.71
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 38 | 58 | 0.71 | 144 | 18:06 |
| 2024-25 | 83 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 0.42 | 115 | 16:59 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 25 | 35 | 60 | 0.73 | 147 | 18:04 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.55 | 139 | 16:59 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 16 | 28 | 44 | 0.54 | 131 | 17:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 7 | 12:50 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.38 | 20 | 18:49 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 15 | 17:20 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.86 | 10 | 16:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:48 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:36 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:26 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18:46 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:59 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.8 | 20 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 73 | 206 |
| 2024-25 | 14.4 | 17 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 70 | 175 |
| 2023-24 | 19.5 | 25 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 75 | 209 |
| 2022-23 | 15.2 | 16 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 70 | 191 |
| 2021-22 | 15.9 | 16 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 73 | 185 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 32 assists, 45 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points | 7 goals, 4 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 25 assists, 40 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 21 assists, 34 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
206 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.