Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 38.9
- SOG
- 102.1
- G
- 6.7
- A
- 32.2
- PPP
- 12.1
- HIT
- 15.8
- BLK
- 89.9
- PIM
- 15.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 1.24
- PPP
- 0.15
- HIT
- 0.19
- BLK
- 1.10
- PIM
- 0.19
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 0.37 | 91 | 21:05 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 0.59 | 88 | 21:32 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 5 | 34 | 39 | 0.48 | 109 | 24:25 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 10 | 38 | 48 | 0.59 | 130 | 24:10 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 0.55 | 124 | 24:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1.43 | 12 | 23:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:26 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:47 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:47 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.4 | 4 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 65 | 123 |
| 2024-25 | 4.5 | 9 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 56 | 113 |
| 2023-24 | 5.6 | 5 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 69 | 151 |
| 2022-23 | 8.5 | 10 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 72 | 181 |
| 2021-22 | 7.7 | 9 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 65 | 170 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 25 assists, 32 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 16 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 28 assists, 34 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 21 assists, 24 points | 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
123 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.