Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 410 game sample- PTS
- 33.0
- SOG
- 141.8
- G
- 15.8
- A
- 17.2
- PPP
- 7.6
- HIT
- 129.6
- BLK
- 33.3
- PIM
- 28.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 410 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 410 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 410 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.40
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.73
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 1.58
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 61 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.31 | 84 | 13:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 17 | 20 | 37 | 0.45 | 150 | 14:51 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 18 | 16 | 34 | 0.44 | 170 | 14:58 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 24 | 17 | 41 | 0.53 | 181 | 16:17 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 0.59 | 144 | 14:50 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.46 | 25 | 15:29 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 9 | 13:33 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.80 | 10 | 17:02 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.36 | 27 | 16:31 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:37 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
| Feb 4 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 |
| Feb 2 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 |
| Jan 31 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 |
| Jan 29 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Feb 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.4 | 8 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 52 | 118 |
| 2024-25 | 20.4 | 17 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 73 | 221 |
| 2023-24 | 20.8 | 18 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 72 | 227 |
| 2022-23 | 20.5 | 24 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 73 | 235 |
| 2021-22 | 22.6 | 24 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 72 | 206 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 13 assists, 26 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 14 assists, 34 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 19 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
118 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Feb 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.