Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 357 game sample- PTS
- 18.3
- SOG
- 86.8
- G
- 8.8
- A
- 9.5
- PPP
- 0.2
- HIT
- 136.5
- BLK
- 39.3
- PIM
- 78.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 357 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 357 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 357 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.22
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.11
- SOG
- 1.05
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.67
- BLK
- 0.48
- PIM
- 0.96
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 73 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 0.22 | 75 | 10:28 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.25 | 84 | 11:56 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 0.21 | 92 | 12:13 |
| 2022-23 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.13 | 50 | 10:34 |
| 2021-22 | 64 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 0.30 | 80 | 11:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 6:17 |
| 2023-24 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 4 | 9:14 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:17 |
| Mar 31 | vs NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6:47 |
| Mar 28 | vs SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Mar 27 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 |
| Mar 25 | vs BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:26 |
| Mar 22 | @ ANA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| Mar 21 | @ LAK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:38 |
| Mar 19 | @ SJS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 |
| Mar 17 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 |
| Mar 14 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.3 | 9 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 56 | 118 |
| 2024-25 | 8.9 | 6 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 63 | 124 |
| 2023-24 | 9.9 | 10 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 61 | 129 |
| 2022-23 | 4.2 | 3 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 36 | 69 |
| 2021-22 | 8.6 | 11 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 52 | 114 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
118 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.