Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 419 game sample- PTS
- 21.4
- SOG
- 79.8
- G
- 3.3
- A
- 18.1
- PPP
- 0.2
- HIT
- 131.9
- BLK
- 113.1
- PIM
- 40.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 419 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 419 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 419 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.26
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 0.97
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.61
- BLK
- 1.38
- PIM
- 0.50
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 0.23 | 75 | 21:28 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 0.23 | 75 | 21:32 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 3 | 28 | 31 | 0.38 | 83 | 21:44 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 0.36 | 93 | 19:34 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 0.17 | 78 | 18:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | 18 | 21:52 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 5 | 22:24 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 4 | 24:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17:57 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:36 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23:10 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:53 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 22:08 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23:44 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.1 | 3 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 67 | 132 |
| 2024-25 | 3.2 | 3 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 65 | 132 |
| 2023-24 | 2.7 | 3 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 67 | 126 |
| 2022-23 | 4.5 | 6 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 64 | 136 |
| 2021-22 | 3.4 | 1 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 55 | 98 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 14 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 27 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 11 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
132 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.