Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 431 game sample- PTS
- 64.9
- SOG
- 175.9
- G
- 22.9
- A
- 42.0
- PPP
- 18.2
- HIT
- 217.7
- BLK
- 67.7
- PIM
- 63.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 431 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 431 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 431 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.79
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.51
- SOG
- 2.15
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 2.66
- BLK
- 0.83
- PIM
- 0.78
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 16 | 37 | 53 | 0.79 | 114 | 20:33 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 26 | 33 | 59 | 0.72 | 202 | 21:06 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 25 | 52 | 77 | 0.94 | 215 | 21:27 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 22 | 42 | 64 | 0.78 | 225 | 19:19 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 21 | 30 | 51 | 0.63 | 168 | 17:52 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 1.25 | 43 | 23:08 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 10 | 17:49 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.71 | 31 | 18:21 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20:19 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18:41 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18:48 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22:07 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.2 | 16 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 63 | 202 |
| 2024-25 | 28.3 | 26 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 81 | 317 |
| 2023-24 | 31.5 | 25 | minus 6.5 goals above expected | 81 | 362 |
| 2022-23 | 33.5 | 22 | minus 11.5 goals above expected | 81 | 333 |
| 2021-22 | 25.5 | 21 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 75 | 254 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 25 assists, 40 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 6 goals, 1 assist, 7 points |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points | 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 13 goals, 34 assists, 47 points | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 24 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
202 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.