Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 30.4
- SOG
- 102.5
- G
- 11.7
- A
- 18.7
- PPP
- 0.7
- HIT
- 184.8
- BLK
- 59.5
- PIM
- 43.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.37
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.25
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.26
- BLK
- 0.72
- PIM
- 0.53
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 0.30 | 71 | 14:58 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 16 | 18 | 34 | 0.47 | 99 | 15:26 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 0.43 | 119 | 16:06 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 0.44 | 126 | 15:39 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 0.27 | 115 | 15:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.31 | 24 | 17:27 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 4 | 14:22 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.00 | 11 | 18:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15:54 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16:00 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:47 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13:03 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.4 | 5 | minus 6.4 goals above expected | 55 | 125 |
| 2024-25 | 15.6 | 16 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 66 | 163 |
| 2023-24 | 18.3 | 11 | minus 7.3 goals above expected | 69 | 192 |
| 2022-23 | 17.0 | 13 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 71 | 182 |
| 2021-22 | 15.8 | 13 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 67 | 163 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 19 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 4 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
Shot locations
125 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.