Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 392 game sample- PTS
- 22.6
- SOG
- 92.5
- G
- 8.6
- A
- 14.0
- PPP
- 0.2
- HIT
- 160.6
- BLK
- 40.4
- PIM
- 78.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 392 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 392 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 392 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 1.13
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.96
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.96
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 0.28 | 79 | 11:25 |
| 2024-25 | 50 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0.30 | 68 | 11:54 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.22 | 111 | 12:11 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 0.34 | 102 | 11:02 |
| 2021-22 | 68 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 0.32 | 103 | 12:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 10:26 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 9:20 |
| 2023-24 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 9 | 8:41 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.33 | 26 | 14:26 |
| 2021-22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 12:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:56 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.8 | 9 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 59 | 108 |
| 2024-25 | 7.6 | 6 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 40 | 95 |
| 2023-24 | 10.4 | 7 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 59 | 142 |
| 2022-23 | 11.1 | 9 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 59 | 136 |
| 2021-22 | 11.5 | 9 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 61 | 143 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 18 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
108 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.