Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 377 game sample- PTS
- 29.0
- SOG
- 137.4
- G
- 12.7
- A
- 16.3
- PPP
- 2.7
- HIT
- 21.2
- BLK
- 24.8
- PIM
- 16.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 377 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 377 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 377 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.35
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 1.68
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.25
- BLK
- 0.30
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.18 | 78 | 13:23 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 0.42 | 127 | 14:49 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 0.51 | 144 | 15:30 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 0.52 | 127 | 16:40 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 24 | 25 | 49 | 0.63 | 158 | 16:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 8:41 |
| 2024-25 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 13 | 14:26 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.42 | 23 | 16:32 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 |
| May 14 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| May 12 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 |
| May 10 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 |
| Apr 11 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 |
| Apr 9 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 |
| Apr 7 | @ VAN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 |
| Mar 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 |
| Mar 6 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.0 | 3 | minus 8.0 goals above expected | 41 | 115 |
| 2024-25 | 15.5 | 13 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 65 | 173 |
| 2023-24 | 19.7 | 26 | plus 6.3 goals above expected | 75 | 200 |
| 2022-23 | 17.5 | 19 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 68 | 167 |
| 2021-22 | 19.9 | 24 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 74 | 198 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 0 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
115 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.