Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 337 game sample- PTS
- 19.2
- SOG
- 85.6
- G
- 5.5
- A
- 13.7
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 123.2
- BLK
- 163.6
- PIM
- 66.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 337 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 337 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 337 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.23
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 1.04
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.50
- BLK
- 2.00
- PIM
- 0.82
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.21 | 70 | 17:32 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 2 | 17 | 19 | 0.28 | 84 | 20:37 |
| 2023-24 | 46 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.17 | 51 | 19:50 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0.16 | 85 | 19:23 |
| 2021-22 | 57 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.18 | 71 | 21:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 11 | 21:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:33 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20:33 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:57 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21:46 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:54 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:56 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16:34 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 22:07 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21:31 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:08 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2.8 | 5 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 64 | 104 |
| 2024-25 | 4.1 | 2 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 56 | 118 |
| 2023-24 | 1.7 | 2 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 35 | 70 |
| 2022-23 | 3.6 | 7 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 59 | 112 |
| 2021-22 | 2.9 | 4 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 49 | 98 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 16 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
104 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.