Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 437 game sample- PTS
- 35.5
- SOG
- 118.2
- G
- 10.2
- A
- 25.3
- PPP
- 3.2
- HIT
- 86.8
- BLK
- 61.8
- PIM
- 30.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 437 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 437 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 437 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.44
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.06
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.23 | 91 | 15:34 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 8 | 35 | 43 | 0.54 | 123 | 17:40 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 0.60 | 159 | 18:01 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 18 | 36 | 54 | 0.66 | 152 | 18:20 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 27 | 24 | 51 | 0.65 | 194 | 18:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0.53 | 18 | 16:01 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.33 | 9 | 20:39 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 9 | 17:16 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 17 | 20:08 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.71 | 11 | 20:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14:16 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20:01 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:33 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15:49 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:16 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:06 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:00 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.6 | 6 | minus 6.6 goals above expected | 59 | 131 |
| 2024-25 | 14.8 | 8 | minus 6.8 goals above expected | 72 | 183 |
| 2023-24 | 17.6 | 17 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 75 | 221 |
| 2022-23 | 18.5 | 18 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 72 | 203 |
| 2021-22 | 23.4 | 27 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 75 | 260 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 34 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 19 assists, 44 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
131 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.