Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 397 game sample- PTS
- 29.6
- SOG
- 101.7
- G
- 11.7
- A
- 17.9
- PPP
- 6.0
- HIT
- 103.1
- BLK
- 49.5
- PIM
- 42.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 397 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 397 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 397 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.36
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.24
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 1.26
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.52
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0.23 | 76 | 13:47 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 0.49 | 94 | 15:05 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.47 | 95 | 14:28 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 0.32 | 108 | 12:37 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 0.40 | 91 | 14:39 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.46 | 14 | 16:20 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 4 | 12:14 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 15:50 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 12 | 14:45 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 |
| Feb 27 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Feb 25 | @ VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:02 |
| Feb 4 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:14 |
| Feb 2 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 |
| Jan 31 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:06 |
| Jan 29 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 |
| Jan 27 | @ NJD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Feb 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.6 | 8 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 43 | 114 |
| 2024-25 | 15.4 | 11 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 59 | 137 |
| 2023-24 | 13.2 | 11 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 67 | 144 |
| 2022-23 | 13.8 | 8 | minus 5.8 goals above expected | 63 | 142 |
| 2021-22 | 14.1 | 16 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 62 | 123 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 24 assists, 31 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
114 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Feb 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.