Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 62.6
- SOG
- 216.3
- G
- 30.0
- A
- 32.6
- PPP
- 18.4
- HIT
- 115.1
- BLK
- 60.8
- PIM
- 13.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.77
- G
- 0.37
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 2.65
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 1.40
- BLK
- 0.74
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 24 | 24 | 48 | 0.80 | 166 | 18:57 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 35 | 35 | 70 | 0.86 | 203 | 19:18 |
| 2023-24 | 70 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 0.53 | 165 | 16:31 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 28 | 32 | 60 | 0.73 | 243 | 18:26 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 0.59 | 184 | 17:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 16 | 20:25 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 9:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24:34 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:28 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:47 |
| Apr 11 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:57 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.4 | 24 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 59 | 240 |
| 2024-25 | 31.1 | 35 | plus 3.9 goals above expected | 79 | 321 |
| 2023-24 | 19.6 | 15 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 67 | 242 |
| 2022-23 | 31.0 | 28 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 81 | 339 |
| 2021-22 | 20.9 | 20 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 68 | 265 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points | 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 22 assists, 39 points | 11 goals, 10 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 16 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
240 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.