Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 400 game sample- PTS
- 33.5
- SOG
- 118.6
- G
- 9.9
- A
- 23.6
- PPP
- 1.1
- HIT
- 131.3
- BLK
- 41.1
- PIM
- 68.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 400 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 400 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 400 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.41
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.45
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 1.60
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.84
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 0.34 | 114 | 16:22 |
| 2024-25 | 57 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 0.54 | 75 | 16:03 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.41 | 156 | 17:27 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 14 | 34 | 48 | 0.59 | 141 | 17:08 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 21 | 27 | 48 | 0.65 | 127 | 18:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 6 | 15:38 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 2 | 14:31 |
| 2022-23 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.93 | 25 | 19:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:01 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:23 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12:46 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18:41 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:35 |
| Apr 15 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.9 | 9 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 68 | 174 |
| 2024-25 | 11.4 | 7 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 50 | 127 |
| 2023-24 | 17.6 | 11 | minus 6.6 goals above expected | 75 | 226 |
| 2022-23 | 16.1 | 14 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 77 | 200 |
| 2021-22 | 16.8 | 21 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 64 | 186 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 23 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 33 assists, 43 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 20 assists, 37 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
174 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.