Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 417 game sample- PTS
- 44.2
- SOG
- 150.3
- G
- 10.3
- A
- 33.9
- PPP
- 11.3
- HIT
- 50.8
- BLK
- 128.3
- PIM
- 28.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 417 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 417 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 417 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.54
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 1.83
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.62
- BLK
- 1.57
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 0.46 | 141 | 21:08 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 7 | 34 | 41 | 0.50 | 126 | 21:23 |
| 2023-24 | 72 | 7 | 51 | 58 | 0.81 | 173 | 23:44 |
| 2022-23 | 65 | 4 | 37 | 41 | 0.63 | 126 | 21:42 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 10 | 58 | 68 | 0.83 | 221 | 23:44 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.54 | 18 | 21:42 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.43 | 17 | 24:50 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.09 | 24 | 24:09 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.86 | 16 | 22:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:57 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 20:45 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:18 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:56 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:10 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.3 | 11 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 74 | 221 |
| 2024-25 | 6.4 | 7 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 71 | 198 |
| 2023-24 | 9.6 | 7 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 68 | 242 |
| 2022-23 | 7.1 | 4 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 59 | 174 |
| 2021-22 | 10.8 | 10 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 79 | 290 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 32 assists, 38 points | 1 goal, 19 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 21 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 16 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 36 assists, 44 points | 2 goals, 19 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
221 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.