Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 37.9
- SOG
- 139.1
- G
- 8.0
- A
- 29.9
- PPP
- 7.1
- HIT
- 68.5
- BLK
- 164.0
- PIM
- 48.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.70
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 0.83
- BLK
- 2.01
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 7 | 30 | 37 | 0.47 | 114 | 24:10 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 0.39 | 149 | 25:05 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 11 | 51 | 62 | 0.76 | 187 | 25:33 |
| 2022-23 | 48 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 0.71 | 126 | 24:27 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.42 | 140 | 18:48 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 24 | 24:51 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 11 | 24:50 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 17 | 25:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:05 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29:23 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:50 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21:04 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 31:28 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 22:05 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 26:18 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:01 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.2 | 7 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 65 | 166 |
| 2024-25 | 9.8 | 6 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 73 | 216 |
| 2023-24 | 11.1 | 11 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 76 | 252 |
| 2022-23 | 7.7 | 8 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 46 | 167 |
| 2021-22 | 8.5 | 11 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 65 | 210 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 28 assists, 34 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 27 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 23 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 9 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
166 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.