Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 401 game sample- PTS
- 28.4
- SOG
- 132.4
- G
- 8.9
- A
- 19.5
- PPP
- 0.9
- HIT
- 107.1
- BLK
- 186.9
- PIM
- 22.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 401 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 401 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 401 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.35
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 1.62
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 1.31
- BLK
- 2.29
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.23 | 105 | 22:12 |
| 2024-25 | 64 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 0.56 | 125 | 23:45 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 0.32 | 154 | 23:52 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 4 | 23 | 27 | 0.34 | 133 | 23:00 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 0.44 | 135 | 23:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 15 | 23:59 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.42 | 24 | 25:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23:36 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16:09 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:08 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:14 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:38 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 23:35 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 5 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.6 | 4 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 65 | 175 |
| 2024-25 | 8.9 | 16 | plus 7.1 goals above expected | 60 | 178 |
| 2023-24 | 6.6 | 10 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 79 | 211 |
| 2022-23 | 6.0 | 4 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 69 | 183 |
| 2021-22 | 7.4 | 5 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 72 | 182 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 19 assists, 33 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
175 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 5
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.